Crash watch: part deux

27 07 2007

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Blowing the dust off this post from earlier this month, could yesterday’s falls in the global markets be the beginning of a bigger movement?

Here’s a wrap-up of yesterday’s / today’s (depending on which side of the international date line you’re on) trading:

Hardest hit was South Korea’s KOSPI index – down  over 4%.

All of the European bourses reacted to the Dow’s decline of 2.26% and shed between 2% to 3% of their value — the UK’s FTSE 100, for instance, suffered its biggest one-day fall for five years, wiping all out of 2007’s gains in just a few hours.

Bucking the trend, however, were China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, down a modest 24 points (0.56%) and India’s Karachi SE 100 index, down less than 1%.

Will there be a bounceback? Short-term, for sure, the best time to buy is on bad news like this.

But in a related development worth watching, the VIX index, the benchmark for U.S. stock volatility surged to its highest point in 13 months. More siginficantly still, the VIX has come within 2 points of 50 on only three occasions in the past decade. The first, on Oct. 8, 1998, came as losses mounted from Russia defaulting on its debt. It reached another peak 10 days after the terrorist attacks in September 2001, and again surged in July 2002 as fallout from Enron Corp.’s collapse drove down shares of its main lenders and former rivals.

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Crash watch

8 07 2007

Finance newsletter The Daily Reckoning, alongside a multitude of other commentators have been predicting global stock market collapse with growing clamour since last winter. Here’s the DR‘s Bill Bonner from last December: “Everywhere we look, we see towers of money, property, derivatives, debt and credit. Towers in the stock market. Towers in the housing market. Towers stacked upon towers. So, today, we take the unprecedented step of issuing a Crash Alert.”

Now comes more:

“The stock market looks healthy. The problem in the housing market is “contained” in the sub-prime sector. And M3 is growing at 13% per annum – the fastest rate in 30 years. With all that new money coming into the system, how can prices do anything other than float higher? But the risk of loss is always at its highest on the precise moment that most people judge it of least concern. Most likely, there will be no crash tomorrow…  nor the day after. But there are some things you are  better off preparing for, even though they may not happen for a while.

When money and credit are free and easy, people become free and easy with them. They begin spending more than they should…and investing recklessly. Eventually, there is a shock…a tipping point…a moment of desperate reality, in which people feel the ground give way beneath their feet. They look down and panic.

What kind of a shock? It could be almost anything.

Sometimes it is a war… sometimes a bankruptcy… sometimes a market shock – such as a sudden increase in the price of oil…or the collapse of a stock market. Then investors, as if they shared a single mind, begin to worry not about the return ON their money; they are concerned about the return OF their money.

What could cause a shock today? Any number of things.

1) The Chinese stock market is getting hit hard. Its CSI 300 Index is down 17% in the last 3 weeks. Brokerage account openings have dropped by 2/3rds. Could global hot money…and local cold cash…turn bearish on Chinese shares? Could Chinese officials say something particularly stupid? Could the market fall another 20%…50%? Could this trigger a worldwide equity sell-off? Yes to all those questions.

2) The dollar is in trouble. On Wednesday, it hit its lowest level against the pound in 26 years. It is now near its lowest level ever against the euro. Trillions worth of dollars now sit in foreign vaults – while reserve managers openly talk of diversifying away from greenbacks. Foreigners don’t have to abandon the dollar en masse to knock it down…all they have to do is to let up on their purchases of dollar-denominated assets – such as US Treasuries. Could it happen? Could the shock set cause a crash in major financial markets?

Why…yes…again.

3) All paper currencies are dangerous. The dollar is not the only paper currency in the world whose supply is growing rapidly. Practically every central bank is printing up its own money in vast quantities – trying to keep up with the US brand. This is why the world has so much ‘liquidity.” It’s why so many assets are rising in price so steeply. But could investors suddenly become fearful of so much monetary inflation? Could consumer prices shoot up…as asset prices already have? Could the world’s people want to get rid of their paper currencies in favour of other stores of value – notably gold, as The Wall Street Journal warns in an article entitled “Money Meltdown.” And could this lead to a worldwide crash?

Yes…yes…yes..

4) A Milan-based bank, Italease, has just seen its derivative portfolio blow up. So has Bear Stearns. Large lenders are getting skittish of complex debt instruments…just as more deals than ever before come to market. So far this year $1 trillion in deals have been done in the North America – a rate of deal-making nearly 50% higher than the year before. What happens if the wheeler-dealers don’t find the credit they’re looking for? What would investors think if even one of these mega-deals blew up badly?

Reports Bloomberg: “The world’s biggest bondholders have had their fill of leveraged buyouts… TIAA-CREF, which oversees $414 billion in retirement funds for teachers and college professors, is boycotting some debt offerings used to finance LBOs. Fidelity International, a unit of the world’s largest mutual fund company, and Lehman Brothers Asset Management LLC, the money-management arm of the third biggest bond underwriter, say they’re avoiding debt from buyouts.

“You cannot do fundamental analysis and believe that those are creditworthy companies,” says an analyst.  “More securities than ever have the lowest rankings, with CCC ratings assigned to 26.5 percent of the new debt, according to New York-based Fitch Ratings. That compares with 15 percent in 2006 for debt that Fitch says has a “high default risk.”

“Traders demand 3 percentage points in extra interest to own U.S. junk bonds rather than government debt, compared with a record low of 2.41 percentage points on June 5, Merrill Lynch & Co. index data show. That’s the fastest increase in spreads since April 2005, just before General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. lost their investment-grade credit ratings.”

Meanwhile, the Bank of England raised its key interest rate on Thursday by twenty five basis points to 5.75 percent – another six year high. This is the fifth time in the past year. The ECB’s Trichet held steady this month but hints that rates will go up in the future.

Elsewhere, banks are likely to hike rates too. And watch out if the Chinese decide to do some serious tightening.

Could there be even bigger blow ups waiting to happen?

And could they cause a stampede for the exits? Anthony Bolton, Britain’s most successful fund manager, worries about it. So does the Bank of International Settlements. And so do central bankers in Madrid, London and who knows where else. And if the pros stop lending so freely, mightn’t it trigger a credit crunch…and a crash? Why, yes…now that you mention it.

5) The great millstone of housing debt continues to grind America’s middle and lower classes. The LA TIMES: “Slow job growth and declining home prices are causing financial problems for more Americans, who are falling behind on consumer debt, including home equity loans, at the highest rate since 2001, the American Bankers Association said Tuesday.

“Credit counselors said consumers were paying the price for reckless attitudes about debt fostered by years of easy credit, particularly in the mortgage market. “It’s a monster we all created,” said Todd Emerson, president of Springboard, a non-profit consumer credit management organisation in Riverside.

Let’s see, Chinese companies depend on consumer buying from America…which depends on US consumer spending…which depends on consumer credit…which depends on mortgage lending…which depends a secondary market in mortgage backed securities…which depends on rising housing prices! But housing prices aren’t rising; they’re falling.

Could housing prices go lower? Could lower housing prices cause consumers to stop spending so much? It seems so. The sale of light motor vehicle in the U.S. dropped 3.4% month-to-month in June to a seasonally adjusted rate of 15.6 million units, according to Northern Trust’s Paul Kasriel. A number of retailers have lowered sales guidance as buyers tighten their belts.

Could an attack of consumer thrift one day swarm over financial markets like Japanese bombers over Pearl Harbour? Your guess is as good as ours”

Scare story? On Friday the FTSE 100 closed just 240 points from its all-time high in 1999. Back then it took the index around 2 years to lose 26% of its value, with a further decline of 22% during the next 18 months. The initial leg down during the September 1929 Wall Street crash wiped 17% off the Dow in around a month; with the full 89% decline from previous peaks following over the next 18 months. It took a quarter of a century for the same peak to again be seen in 1954.





On top of the world (again)

30 06 2007

“Right now, the whole world economy is enjoying a spell of catastrophic prosperity. That is to say, things are going far too well…for far too many people.” Bill Bonner, The Daily Reckoning,  who in this piece correlates the art market with the credit bubble.





The Paris Hilton Trading System

30 06 2007

A new way of stock tracking that’s as reality-based as current company valuations, courtesy of Updata CEO David Linton. Echoes of Celebdaq

“OK, it’s Friday and I couldn’t resist building on an idea mooted by a client recently. We have dubbed this the Paris Hilton Trading System. I started out with the idea that you buy Hilton shares in the US on good news about Paris and sell on bad news, or indeed the other way round. But the results were fairly mixed and deciding what constituted good and bad was getting difficult. The Optimised Stop for Hilton is 3% with a 5 day signal delay and you should not take signals during a breach or within 23 days of the stop signal.

So if you are trading news algos just take every ‘Paris Hilton’ on those stop conditions. The result is the Equity Curve below. “

Paris Hilton