The end of TV (…just not quite yet)

31 07 2007

When is the end of TV not the end of TV? When it “changes significantly over the next decade,” observes Ben Macklin, senior analyst with eMarketer and author of the new report US TV Trends: The Impact of DVRs, VOD and the Web.

TV ad revenues showed positive growth during 2006, states the report:

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A forecast which is broadly mirrored by U.K. numbers published yesterday by Zenith Optimedia, which predicts modest growth of 2% for TV advertising during 2008 and slightly flatter growth of 1% to 2% from 2009-2012. Significantly, it asserts that growth across ITV’s portfolio of digital channels isn’t enough to shore up the decline in revenues for its primary ITV1 network. Unlike the U.S., however, U.K. TV airtime is the cheapest it has ever been since 1995 or the early 1980s.

Returning to the eMarketer forecast, it predicts that by 2011 as much as half of U.S. viewers will have access to timeshifting technologies, such as VOD and DVRs, combined with greater viewing of video online:

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… Leading to more ad spend moving online:

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In a related report, Media Post poses the question: will this year’s ad negotiations be the first digital upfront? No, according to the straw poll of one: MediaVest’s Christine Merrifield; though interest in VOD is on the rise.