Against a predicted backdrop of wider market turmoil as we enter 2008, Reuters ran a great piece last week on the likely impact of broader market declines on a sector which remains a major buzz with industry and consumers alike [even though, privately, I suspect alot of ramping from investors when it comes to the former, and a slow, but gradual paradigm shift among the latter].
Sure it makes for good copy fodder at a time when the pain is spreading through to consumer, as well as institutional investors [just a foretaste of things to come, IMO]. But the Reuters piece has a point: both large media corporations and, crucially, the advertisers, which in most cases support them, will have difficulty in justifying unproven activity amid a climate of investment conservatism.
You need only look to what some would call a landgrab, others pure speculation, which has been the key characteristic of the new media landscape during 2007.
Fast forward to 2008:
- Mass media is broadly spent when it comes to genuinely new ideas or connecting with the ways in which consumers will likely connect with them, thus…
- Those propositions which can demonstrate consumer uptake, if only on a micro level, will likely attract the acquistion interest of the majors. This will come at a time when second or third round financing is non-existent; nowhere else to turn.
- The valuations placed against those in the vendors’ market will be attractive to the potential purchasers [a parallel with real estate and company valuations, in general, anyone?]
- Advertisers will wake up to this landscape beyond the hyperbole of press releases — not least a result of both clents and their agency handlers haemoraging revenue against the splattergun accountability which is linear, vs. an emerging landscape of robust [did anyone say actual?] metrics which non-linear promises. I can relate from first hand experience, that the majority of blue-chip agencies do not have a clue about what they’re doing or propose to do in this space.
Sorry, you won’t like the answer: big media corporations
Emergent ideas which just might’ve turned into something genuinely different, had they been in the right place, at the right time.
Tighten you’re belts everyone, 2008 ain’t gonna be pretty… [and i didn’t even mention the ‘R’ word once…]