Will online video cause the net to melt?

8 09 2007

No, claims The Exabyte Era, a 24-page white paper from Cisco Systems.

Extract from the Exec Summary:

YouTube is just the beginning. Online video will experience three waves of growth.

Thanks to the YouTube effect, online video has grown rapidly. In North America, online video has jumped from 7 percent of traffic in 2005 to18 percent of traffic in 2007. In response to this remarkable development, many service providers are accelerating their capacity upgrade plans. But the Internet is not collapsing under the weight of YouTube traffic, nor is it likely to.

Global online video traffic is still relatively modest at 11 percent of consumer Internet traffic, and even as it increases four-fold between 2007 and 2011, Internet video to the PC screen will soon be exceeded by a second wave driven by the delivery of Internet video to the TV screen. Beyond 2015, a third wave of video traffic will be driven by video communications.

Other highlights:

  • IP traffic will nearly double every two years through 2011
  • Consumer IP traffic will surpass business IP traffic in 2008
  • Peer-to-peer (P2P) download traffic will quadruple between 2006 and 2011 (the equivalent of 10 million DVD’s-worth every month growing to 750 million DVD’s-worth every month)
  • But P2P will decrease as an overall proportion of internet traffic, but until 2011 it will grow by CAGR of 34%
  • Global internet video traffic (excluding P2P) already generates more traffic than the entire U.S. backbone in 2000; by 2011 this is expected to grow by a factor of 86
  • Internet video-to-PC and TV will increase ten-fold each thru 2011
  • The internet is not collapsing under the weight of YouTube video traffic, nor is it likely to
  • The second wave of online video adoption will be marked by a growing appetite for high-definition content: 40 hours of hi-def TV is equivalent to one million email messages